Policy Simulation for New BRT and Area Pricing Alternatives Using an Opinion Survey in Jakarta

Abstract

An area pricing scheme for Jakarta, Indonesia, is currently under review as a transportation control measure along with the operation of new bus rapid transit (BRT) system. While this scheme may be effective for congestion reduction in the central business district (CBD), provision of alternative means of transportation for auto users that are ‘pushed-out’ is of great importance to obtain public acceptance. Hence, it is necessary to simulate simultaneously the area pricing scheme and the BRT development which may serve as an alternative for assumed ‘pushed-out’ auto users. Utilizing data from an opinion survey, this paper studies how BRT and auto ridership are likely to vary as a function of traveler and system attributes. Additionally, the study attempts to evaluate the way this new travel mode is distinguished from other existing conventional transportation alternatives in Jakarta. The survey data contains socioeconomic information of over 1000 respondents as well as details of to-work/school trips to the CBD including mode, travel cost, time, etc. Respondents were asked about their willingness to shift from their current mode to BRT to make the same travel for different BRT fare levels. Modeling efforts suggest that a mixed logit model performs better in explaining choice behavior. Therefore, this model was used for policy simulation. The simulation results brought about many implications as to the tested policies. While the developed models may be applied only to future BRT corridors in which the survey was conducted, they capture the key variables that are significant in explaining mode choice behavior and present great potential for practical use in policy simulation and analysis in a large metropolitan area of the developing world.     

Navigating Institutional Constraints in the Process of Computational Environmental Modeling

Abstract

The use of computational models has proliferated in the last few decades due to the practical benefits that they offer in terms of understanding complex systems. However, the process of developing a computational model is not only shaped by scientific and practical concerns. Modelers must also navigate the institutional structures in which the models are constructed and implemented. In the process, they must often draw upon existing or create new social relationships that can, themselves, alter the institutional structures they are attempting to navigate. In this article, I use an ethnographic approach to examine three examples in which the process of building and implementing a computational model was constrained by institutional factors and the strategies the modelers used to navigate them. The research was conducted with computational modelers at the Chesapeake Bay Program who are involved in constructing the Chesapeake Bay modeling system for nutrient management in the watershed. Modelers in this context had to: build relationships with the broader scientific community to reinforce the “believability” of the model, draw upon institutional relationships in order to work around limitations on data-sharing between organizations, and manage differing incentive structures to motivate and coordinate the research needed to complete the model     

北部湾港口建设与整合的思考

2009年4月,交通运输部批准了防城港、钦州港和北海三港统一归并,组成"广西北部湾港"。这标志着我国沿海又一个港口群的诞生。阐述了北部湾港口的建设与整合的目标和进展情况。分析了北部湾港口建设与整合对促进北部湾地区经济发展的重大意义。最后,提出了进一步健全北部湾港口管理体制、发展临港工业等5项对策。     

湾口围填海对钦州湾水动力环境的影响

从潮流、潮通量与水交换3个方面探讨湾口围填海对海湾内海与江道的影响。结果表明,两个工况的影响区域大多在外湾,围填使得金鼓江江道宽度缩窄、江内流速减小,潮通量减幅达17%,半交换周期增大达1.21 d;老人沙圈围虽增大了东水道的潮量,但金鼓江缩窄导致分水减小,圈围对金鼓江水动力环境影响较小;湾口围填虽小幅度占用中水道,但对内湾的水动力影响很小,今后的围填规划可以从中水道及其两侧高滩入手。     

Operational Oceanography System applied to the Prestige oil-spillage event

This contribution describes the procedure used during the Prestige oil-spillage event, by means of an Operational Oceanography System, and the behaviour of the present prediction tools (hydrodynamic and dispersion models) applied to it. The accuracy of these tools is estimated by a reanalysis of field data transmitted by a sea surface drifting buoy, released at the time of the oil spill. The numerical models applied were the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), fed by the available six-hourly NCEP atmospheric information, together with a Lagrangian Particle-Tracking Model (LPTM). ROMS has been used to estimate the current fields for the Bay of Biscay, whilst the LPTM has provided the oil spill trajectories. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the numerical models depends upon the quality of the meteorological input data. In this case, the current fields at the sea surface, derived by ROMS, have been underestimated by the wind fields of the NCEP reanalysis data. An efficient calibration of these wind fields, with data provided by the Gascony buoy (fixed oceanic and atmospheric station), achieves more realistic looking results; this is reflected in the comparison between the buoy trajectory predicted numerically and the tracked movements of the drifting buoy.     

在福建湄洲湾建设煤炭储运基地势在必行

湄洲湾具有丰富的深水岸线资源,具备建设煤炭储运基地的优良条件。文章阐述在莆田湄洲湾建设煤炭储运基地的重要意义和建设的必要性及可行性。     

Competing Visions for Marine Tenure and Co-Management: Genesis of a Marine Management Area System in Chile

Chile has been attempting to establish a Management Area (MA) system that melds the use of marine protected areas with marine tenure. The process has brought to the fore the competing interests of various user groups: artisanal fishermen, marine science professionals, government managers, tourist developers, and the Navy. We explore the core relationships among fishermen and the ecologists and biologists whose work is essential for establishing and maintaining a MA. The MA system's creation and implementation raise the key question of whether a marine tenure system can work under the conditions imposed by the Chilean government. There is a need to recognize and reconcile contradictions in a government management model that strives simultaneously to be a conservation zone and a financially profitable co-management zone. This article examines the MA management system's fault lines in the context of Chile's political economy, and the intimate interaction of management with fishermen's cultural survival strategies.     

《大湄公河次区域便利货物及人员跨境运输协定》对铁路的启示

《大湄公河次区域便利货物及人员跨境运输协定》是我国参与大湄公河次区域公路跨境运输国际交流合作的主要法律文件,也是"一带一路"倡议的重要成果和有力抓手。对该协定的发展沿革、与我国相关的内容、机构保障等方面进行概述,分析协定体系框架的主要内容和特点,研究铁路和公路便利化运输规则的差异,提出对我国参与铁路便利化跨境运输协定工作的相关启示。     

粤港澳大湾区城际铁路网运营管理模式

通过调研分析粤港澳大湾区内城际铁路运营管理现状,分别对城际类、通道类项目的运营管理模式进行分析讨论。对城际类项目,建议可独立运营的线路采用自管自营模式,与国家铁路联通紧密的广珠线可继续委托广州铁路(集团)公司运营,内地与港澳联合运输线路应与相关方签订联合运输协议。对通道类项目,建议按照高速铁路的运营管理选择代管模式。     

关于重交通的陡坡路段以及被矿山包围区沥青路面结构设计问题的思考

针对干线公路交通量大重载车辆多的陡坡路段以及被矿区包围的农村公路网路面早期出现推移和车辙的现象进行了原因分析,并从设计上如何因地置宜地考虑进行探讨和研究。